区域性“全球价值链”下的自由贸易协定

区域性“全球价值链”下的自由贸易协定

Free Trade Agreements under Regional “Global Value Chain”

《财经研究》2023年49卷第10期 页码：4 - 18 online：2023年10月3日

作者

中：李志远1,2 , 陈鸣1

英：Li Zhiyuan1,2, Chen Ming1

作者单位：1. 复旦大学 经济学院, 上海 200433; 2. 上海国际金融与经济研究院, 上海 200433

摘要及关键词

摘要：厘清当前国际分工下的价值链是具有全球性特征还是更具区域性特征，这是探究当前国际分工构成以及未来分工发展等根本性贸易问题的基础，具有重要的理论意义。文章利用CEPII双边贸易流量数据库，测算产品的平均进口距离用于衡量1995—2014年间价值链生产在全球性特征上的变化，并与Eaton和Kortum（2002）框架下构造的理想“全球价值链”进行比较，分析评估全球化进一步发展的潜力。研究显示，1995—2014年间“全球价值链”的发展极为有限，平均进口距离只增长了约300千米，距离理想的“全球价值链”下的进口距离差距很大，特别是中间品贸易的进口距离较短，说明价值链分工仍主要体现为区域性特征。在价值链呈区域性特征的背景下，各国更倾向于达成区域性的自由贸易协定以支持区域性的价值链生产，即一国价值链的区域性越强，则该国签订的贸易协定区域性倾向就越强。该效应体现为一国中间品进口距离增加100千米，则该国与其贸易协定伙伴国的平均距离就增加约389千米。文章揭示了当前价值链分工的区域性特征，部分解释了近年来多边贸易协定推进困难的原因。

关键词：中间品进口；全球价值链；自由贸易协定

Summary: With the rapid development of production globalization, the concept of “global value chain” (GVC) has gradually been formed in academic and policy fields, and its impact on international specialization, foreign direct investment, export and trade policy formulation is discussed. The global characteristics of the value chain are the basis of this series of studies, but the existing literature pays little attention to whether the value chain is really “global”, and the conclusions of the study are inconclusive. This is because the existing criteria for judging the global value chain have shortcomings, and cannot simultaneously consider the quantitative distribution and geographical distribution of a country’s imported goods. Therefore, it is undoubtedly of great theoretical and practical value to explore appropriate judgment criteria to objectively measure the “global” and “regional” characteristics of the value chain, as well as the impact of current value chain characteristics on international trade policies. This paper attempts to investigate the above issues. First, based on the framework of Eaton and Kortum (2002), this paper discusses and constructs the import distance of intermediate goods under the ideal GVC, and compares it with the actual import distance to judge whether the existing value chain has more “global” or “regional” characteristics. It is found that there is a gap of about 1,500 kilometers between the actual import distance and the ideal GVC, indicating that the current value chain is far from reaching the state of the ideal GVC and is still a regional value chain. Second, this paper further investigates whether the regional characteristics of the current value chain have contributed to the flourishing of free trade agreements between countries. The empirical result shows that if the import distance of intermediate goods increases by 100 kilometers, the average distance between the country and its trade agreement partner countries will increase by about 389 kilometers. Even if considering the effect of endogeneity, the result is still significant. This shows that countries tend to reach regional free trade agreements to fit regional value chain production. The contributions of this paper are as follows: First, it improves the method of measuring whether the value chain is “global” or “regional” and deepens our understanding of GVC. Second, it explores the relationship between the regional characteristics of the value chain and the regional trade integration policy. Compared with the existing literature, this paper indicates the important role played by the regional characteristics of the value chain in the booming development of free trade agreements. Third, it constructs the pull force of intermediate goods import and the push force of intermediate goods export to solve the endogenous problem between the regional value chain and the regional tendency when countries sign trade agreements. Fourth, it provides a new explanation for the fact that regional trade integration is more popular than globalization in recent years, and points out the direction of globalization in the future, which has important practical value in the current complex trade environment.

Key words:intermediate goods import; global value chain; free trade agreements

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20230221.201

收稿日期：2022-10-28

基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（72273035，72121002）；教育部重点研究基地重大项目（22JJD790012）；国家社会科学基金重大项目（23ZDA052）

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